Simply put – yes. The costs of residential total HVAC replacements are more expensive in 2026 and 2027 when compared to 2020.
A combination of import tariffs, supply chain issues, higher costs of material, inflation and higher labor costs have increased costs passed along to the majority of consumers. Between Jan. 2020 – Aug. 2026 the inflation rate increased by 29.8%. A product that cost $100 in 2020 costs $129.85 on average in 2026.
The HVAC industry has also been impacted by increased material costs and additional labor costs not entirely captured in the inflation data. Moonlight HVAC and Nightscapes examines some of the causes of HVAC price increases.
Why are HVAC Systems More Expensive in 2026 Resources:
- What are HVAC Units Made Of?
- Do I Need To Swap My AC Unit Out For the New HVAC Refrigerant at My House?
- When Did R-22 (Freon) & R-410A (Puron) Stop Production in the United States?
- Are Total HVAC Replacement Systems More Expensive in Tennessee in 2026 & 2027 than in Years Past?
What are HVAC Units Made Of?
Two primary materials of HVAC systems are steel and aluminum. Steel and aluminum completely derived within the United States are not subject to tariffs . When steel and aluminum are however imported, these materials are subject to a variance of tariffs.
Imported Steel
Imported steel is subject to high tariff rates (40-50% in some cases). However, steel imports for residential HVAC units have temporarily been reduced to 15%. This temporary reduction in steel tariffs is set to expire on December 31, 2027.
Imported Aluminum
Aluminum derived outside of the United States is generally tariffed starting at 25%.
Similar to steel, there is a temporary tariff reduction for aluminum used in residential HVAC systems. This temporary tariff reduction is set to expire on December 31, 2027.
Copper
The cost of copper continues to skyrocket and increased in cost by 85% between August 1, 2022 and August 1, 2026. In HVAC systems, copper is primarily used in refrigerant lines, conduits and coil tubing components.
Refrigerant Advancements
A fifteen year phase down that began in 2022, has drastically adjusted the refrigerant landscape for AC units. Residential HVAC regulations are in the extended process of a phasedown with the goal of a reduction in hydrofluorocarbons (HFCS).
Old refrigerants of Freon (R-22) and Puron (R-410A) are getting replaced with newer and more eco-friendly A2L refrigerants.
Do I Need To Swap My AC Unit Out For the New HVAC Refrigerant at My House?
If the residential unit is utilizing a R-410A system, an upgrade is generally not required. Many of these systems were in production between 2000 – 2025.
While repairs are legal that utilize old refrigerants, old refrigerants are in short supply. As the production of the old refrigerants have stopped, the costs associated with freon and puron have skyrocketed.
Our experienced and honest HVAC team can verify whether an HVAC unit needs to be replaced and when a unit repaired. Contact the team to learn more or get a second quote.
When Did R-22 (Freon) & R-410A (Puron) Stop Production in the United States?
In 2020 R-22 (Freon) was completely phased out of production. All manufacturing and importation of freon became illegal in the United States. The lack of production of R-22 refrigerant caused the existing supply to increase in cost.
On January 1, 2025 R-410A (Puron) halted production and importation. AC repair and refill of existing models is fully legal and HVAC technicians are able to utilize existing R-410A refrigerant stock.
Are Total HVAC Replacement Systems More Expensive in Tennessee in 2026 & 2027 than in Years Past?
Total HVAC replacements have increased in costs when compared to the start of the decade. Tariffs for imported HVAC equipment and material, along with material sourced outside of the United States, is capped at 15%. This temporary tariff reduction is set to expire on Dec 31, 2027.
Due to a number of material sourcing changes and several domestic and international policies and events, HVAC repairs and replacements have increased in cost within the United States. Since pricing is generally determined by wholesalers, reliable data does not exist. However with inflation at 29.8% compared to Jan. 2020 a realistic estimate is that HVAC replacements are roughly 45-55% more expensive in September 2026 when compared to January 2020.
